former Vice President Al Gore - grandmaster of exploiting fear

Fear Mongering in Denver

 By Dr. Tim Ball

Arctic IceGeorge Nathan said, “Politics is the diversion of trivial men who, when they succeed at it, become important in the ideas of more trivial men.” Henry Adams said, “Practical politics consists in ignoring facts.”

Few have combined these sentiments better than former Vice President Al Gore. His comment before the recent Democratic national convention in Denver that, “You understand that the politics of the past are exhausted, and you’re tired - we are all tired - of appeals based on fear.” What we’re tired of is such fatuous statements from the grandmaster of exploiting fear. Within the same speech he said, “We are facing a planetary emergency, which, if not solved, would exceed anything we’ve ever experienced in the history of mankind.” “Many scientists predict-shockingly-that the entire north polar ice cap may be completely gone during summer months during the first term of the next president.

Sea levels are rising; fires are raging; storms are stronger. Military experts warn us our national security is threatened by massive waves of climate refugees destabilizing countries around the world, and scientists tell us the very web of life is endangered by unprecedented extinctions.” Hyperbole heaped on hyperbole based on gross misrepresentation and misunderstanding of the facts around a nonexistent problem.

What is Gore’s purpose?  It is not personal political gain because his political career is effectively over.  He can claim it is political because he is supporting Barack Obama for President. However, it is more focused and personal because in his speech he identifies Obama as a President who will introduce Gore’s push for alternate energies and the reduction of the use of carbon-based fuels. This would include carbon credits, which although they don’t reduce CO2 in the atmosphere, are already benefitting Gore financially. H. L. Mencken said the urge to save humanity is almost always the false front for an urge to rule. In this case Gore wants Obama to rule so he can continue to benefit personally. The fear mongering is as much to keep Obama on course, as it is to scare the public. It is hard to imagine a Democrat listening in that auditorium who would not demand Obama act.

The mainstream media quickly identified limitations of Gore’s proposals. In a Washington Post article, “Making Gore’s switch isn’t quite so simple”, David Fahrenthold quotes Richard Newell, professor of environmental economics at Duke University.  “this goal is so far outside the realm of possibility, it would be practically infeasible, politically impossible and economically and environmentally unwise.”

What the article fails to consider is the scientific evidence used to buttress Gore’s plan. Despite readily available devastating criticism of the bad science in his main propaganda vehicle, “An Inconvenient Truth” he continues to present scientific misinformation.

If you consider those criticisms too political then consider the ruling of a British court that one week before he received his Nobel prize ordered the British government to produce handbooks for teachers showing the movie to inform students of its political bias and nine scientific errors.

A brief examination of the “facts” in Gore’s Denver speech shows the difference between what science knows and is saying and what a fear monger exploits. it also shows that he is ignored scientific and legal judgments and admonitions. One point he makes leaves the “new President” little wiggle room. He must act immediately to avoid facing the consequences and liabilities in his very first term. “Many scientists predict - shockingly - that the entire north polar ice cap may be completely gone during summer months during the first term of the next president.”

There are a few scientists who have made predictions of an ice-free summer Arctic in 5 years. The “many” Gore refers to is similar to the consensus argument for humans causing global warming. A few scientists present a position then several join the chorus without understanding what is being said or how the information was derived. Surprise, surprise, the prediction was made by a computer model, but what was the basis for the model? We only have meaningful ice conditions from satellites since 1980, although some say 1978.  Regardless, it is a 30-year record and although that is considered statistically significant, it is of little value in climate studies.

The record shows,:

  • Great variability from summer to winter, close to 10 million square kilometers.
  • Variability of approximately 1.5 million square kilometers in total summer ice cover from year to year.
  • A slight downward trend in summer ice extent.
  • A decrease in summer extent in 2007.
  • A recovery to average winter conditions in 2008.

What is not shown is the recovery of summer ice extent to slightly above average for the period of record in the summer of 2008. So, where does the prediction of no summer ice in five years come from? Answer, it is a simple linear trend combined with the IPCC’s false claim of continued global warming fed in to a computer model for which there is virtually no temperature data. It is ‘science’ that would fail a first year university term paper assignment.

There are three major problems with the prediction. Global temperatures have declined since 2000 and are expected to continue cooling. Summer ice extent returned to the 30-year average in the summer of 2008. NASA has determined the changes in ice extent in 2007 were primarily due to changes in wind direction, not temperature.

Arctic ice is a favorite of Gore and the promoters of human caused global warming. They can exploit it because it is an area remote for most people and they know little about it.  Gore didn’t mention polar bears this time likely because he tried to use that only to find the science was not as he said. He did raise the threat of sea level, but is equally wrong on that science; even his fellow Nobel prize winners, the IPCC, disagreed with him.  Sea level has risen at least 120 m (400+ feet) in the last 10,000 years. The current rate is estimated to be slightly less than the average for that period of time.  By mentioning sea level immediately after comments about Arctic ice, he hints at a link.  If it all melted it would not change sea level at all.  Gore’s movie focuses with dramatic visualization using computer simulations to show land flooded by rising sea levels from melting ice. He knows that this is one fear foremost in the public’s mind because a majority of the world’s population lives in low coastal plains.  When I ask people, “What’s wrong with the warming?” Almost everyone thinks for a while and then says, “Sea levels will rise.”

“Fires are raging.” Yes, but they have always raged.  In fact, there are fewer fires now than in the past.  People start more, but they extinguish and contain more including natural fires (both forest and grassland) that previously swept unchecked.

“Storms are stronger.” No they are not. They may do more financial damage as hurricane insurance claims show, but that is not measured intensity. In fact, US government data showed the number of severe storms, tornadoes, and hurricanes were more severe in the immediate past. His comment aligns with the error that warming will bring more severe weather while the science and historical evidence shows it will bring less.

If the threats of natural disaster do not achieve his goal of fear, he plays a most disturbing card. It is an appeal to our most base instincts.“ He wraps it in the cloak of national security by saying it, “is threatened by massive waves of climate refugees destabilizing countries around the world.” He makes these comments to a developed world already concerned about immigration threatening their economies and way of life. It is fear mongering of the most contemptible kind.  Like so many environmental threats and outrageous comments, it is cloaked in the excuse, that I really don’t want this to happen and would prefer not to say these things but I must save the planet and you must change your behavior. His comment that, “the very web of life is endangered by unprecedented extinctions” encapsulates this idea.

So Gore plays practical politics by ignoring the facts. He becomes a trivial man who has exploited ideas that have attracted more trivial people. Ironically, when he did this for political gain it was more understandable and tolerable because of the disdain and cynicism the public has for politicians and their political practices. Now, his motive can only be to further his own financial gain. It is a motive he has attacked and disparaged in others, so while many will not object to his making money, the majority will justifiably denounce his hypocrisy.  Nowhere is that hypocrisy more illuminated than his own comment, “You understand that the politics of the past are exhausted, and you’re tired - we are all tired-of appeals based on fear.” Amen.

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